Sex-disaggregated data matters: tracking the impact of COVID-19 on the health of women and men.

Sex and gender matter to health outcomes, but despite repeated commitments to sex-disaggregate data in health policies and programmes, a persistent and substantial absence of such data remains especially in lower-income countries. This represents a missed opportunity for monitoring and identifying gender-responsive, evidence-informed solutions to address a key driver of the pandemic. In this paper we review the availability of national sex-disaggregated surveillance data on COVID-19 and examine trends on the testing-to-outcome pathway. We further analyse the availability of data according to the economic status of the country and investigate the determinants of sex differences, including the national gender inequality status (according to a global index) in each country. Results are drawn from 18 months of global data collection from over 200 countries. We find differences in COVID-19 prevention behaviours and illness outcomes by sex, with lower uptake of vaccination and testing plus an elevated risk of severe disease and death among men. Supporting and maintaining the collection, collation, interpretation and presentation of sex-disaggregated data requires commitment and resources at subnational, national and global levels, but provides an opportunity for identifying and taking gender-responsive action on health inequities. As a first step the global health community should recognise, value and support the importance of sex-disaggregated data for identifying and tackling an inequitable pandemic.

Analytic approaches to assess the impact of local spending on sexually transmitted diseases.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the estimated associations between annual sexually transmitted diseases (STD) expenditures per capita and STD incidence rates among Florida and Washington local health departments (LHDs) from 2001 to 2017, using two approaches-a longitudinal regression model with lagged STD spending and a regression model with the Arellano-Bond panel estimator. DATA SOURCES: Secondary data for LHDs were obtained from Florida and Washington state government offices and combined with county sociodemographic and health system data from the federal government. STUDY DESIGN: We examined LHDs in Florida and Washington using a longitudinal panel study design to estimate ecological relationships between annual STD expenditures per capita and annual STD incidence rates from 2001 to 2017, with LHDs as the unit of analysis. We compared two regression models: generalized estimating equations (GEE) and the Arellano-Bond panel estimator (an instrumental variable approach). DATA COLLECTION: The secondary data were combined to build a longitudinal panel database for LHDs in Florida and Washington from 2001 to 2017. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In the GEE model with both states, greater STD spending in a prior year was associated unexpectedly with greater STD incidence rates in succeeding years. The Arellano-Bond models for both states had the expected inverse associations but were not significant. In the Arellano-Bond models for Florida, a $1 increase in STD spending in previous years was followed by decreases in STD incidence rates ranging between 29 and 58 points in succeeding years (0.09 ≥ p ≥ 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: In longitudinal panel data for LHDs in two states, the Arellano-Bond estimator, or other instrumental variable approach, is preferred over conventional regression models to obtain unbiased estimates of the relationship between annual STD spending rates and annual STD rates. Future studies will require accurate, standardized, and detailed longitudinal data and rigorous analytic approaches, such as those illustrated in our study.

A parsimonious characterization of change in global age-specific and total fertility rates.

This study aims to understand trends in global fertility from 1950-2010 though the analysis of age-specific fertility rates. This approach incorporates both the overall level, as when the total fertility rate is modeled, and different patterns of age-specific fertility to examine the relationship between changes in age-specific fertility and fertility decline. Singular value decomposition is used to capture the variation in age-specific fertility curves while reducing the number of dimensions, allowing curves to be described nearly fully with three parameters. Regional patterns and trends over time are evident in parameter values, suggesting this method provides a useful tool for considering fertility decline globally. The second and third parameters were analyzed using model-based clustering to examine patterns of age-specific fertility over time and place; four clusters were obtained. A country's demographic transition can be traced through time by membership in the different clusters, and regional patterns in the trajectories through time and with fertility decline are identified.

Developing the Evidence for Public Health Systems to Battle Vaccine Preventable Disease at the Local Level: Data Challenges and Strategies for Advancing Research.

CONTEXT: Generally decreasing local health department (LHD) resources devoted to immunization programs and changes in LHD roles in immunization services represent major shifts in a core LHD service. OBJECTIVE: Within a rapidly changing immunization landscape and emerging vaccine preventable disease outbreaks, our objective was to examine how LHD immunization expenditures are related to county-level immunization coverage and pertussis rates. DESIGN: We used a practice-based approach in which we collaborated with practice partners and uniquely detailed LHD immunization expenditure data. Our analyses modeled the ecologic relationship between LHD immunization expenditures and LHD system performance and health outcomes. SETTING: This study was launched through a consortium of public health Practice-Based Research Network states as part of a suite of studies examining the relationship between various LHD service-related expenditures and health outcomes. PARTICIPANTS: We investigated and sought to include all LHDs in the states of Florida, New York (except New York City's LHD), and Washington. OUTCOME MEASURES: With LHD immunization expenditures as our independent variable, our outcomes were 1 year of jurisdiction-level rates of toddler immunization completeness, to measure immunization system performance, and 11 years of annual jurisdiction-level numbers of pertussis cases per 100 000 population, to measure related health outcomes. RESULTS: Immunization completeness and pertussis rates varied greatly, but our models did not produce significant results despite numerous analytic approaches and while controlling for other factors. CONCLUSION: While our study was part of a suite of studies using similar methods and producing significant results, this study was instead challenged by serious data limitations and highlighted the gap in consistent, standardized data that can support critically needed evidence regarding immunization rates and disease. With LHDs at the epicenter of reducing vaccine preventable disease, it is vital to utilize emerging opportunities to understand the nature of their efforts in immunization coverage and disease prevention.

Using a positive deviance framework to identify Local Health Departments in Communities with exceptional maternal and child health outcomes: a cross sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The United States spends more than most other countries per capita on maternal and child health (MCH), and yet lags behind other countries in MCH outcomes. Local health departments (LHDs) are responsible for administering various maternal and child health programs and interventions, especially to vulnerable populations. The goal of this study was to identify local health department jurisdictions (LHDs) that had exceptional maternal and child health outcomes compared to their in-state peers - positive deviants (PDs) - in Washington, Florida and New York in order to support the identification of strategies that can improve community health outcomes. METHODS: We used MCH expenditure data for all LHDs in FL (n = 67), and WA (n = 35), and most LHDs in NY (n = 48) for 2009-2010 from the Public Health Activities and Services Tracking (PHAST) database. We conducted our analysis in 2014-2015. Data were linked with variables depicting local context and LHD structure. We used a cross-sectional study design to identify communities with better than expected MCH outcomes and multiple regression analysis to control for factors outside of and within LHD control. RESULTS: We identified 50 positive deviant LHD jurisdictions across 3 states: WA = 10 (29 %); FL = 24 (36 %); NY = 16 (33 %). Overall, internal factor variables improved model fit for identifying PD LHD jurisdictions, but individual variables were not significant. CONCLUSIONS: We empirically identified LHD jurisdictions with better MCH outcomes compared to their peers. Research is needed to assess what factors contributed to these exceptional MCH outcomes and over which LHDs have control. The positive deviance method we used to identify high performing local health jurisdictions in the area of maternal and child health outcomes can assist in better understanding what practices work to improve health outcomes. We found that funding may not be the only predictor of exceptional outcomes, but rather, there may be activities that positive deviant LHDs are conducting that lead to improved outcomes, even during difficult financial circumstances. This method can be applied to other outcomes, communities, and/or services.

The Association Between Adolescent Obesity and Disability Incidence in Young Adulthood.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the longitudinal relationship between obesity during adolescence and development of disability during young adulthood. METHODS: A cohort of 8,032 individuals aged 11-21 years enrolled in 1994-1995 (Wave I) of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, followed up in 1996 (Wave II) and in 2001-2002 (Wave III). Individuals were divided into four categories based on weight and height of Wave II and Wave III: (1) developing obesity; (2) persistent obesity; (3) no obesity; and (4) obesity reversal. Disability was measured in Wave III using a measure of functional limitations and the Short Form 36 physical functioning scale. Logistic regression was used to predict the probability of disability as a function of weight category. RESULTS: Compared with their nonobese peers, adolescents developing obesity (adjusted odds ratio: 1.83 [95% confidence interval: 1.51-2.22]) and with persistent obesity (adjusted odds ratio: 2.09 [95% confidence interval: 1.64-2.67]) had a higher odds of having a functional limitation in Wave III. CONCLUSIONS: Developing obesity and persistent obesity during adolescence were significantly associated with increased disability in young adulthood.

Social patterns and differentials in the fertility transition in the context of HIV/AIDS: evidence from population surveillance, rural South Africa, 1993 - 2013.

BACKGROUND: Literature is limited on the effects of high prevalence HIV on fertility in the absence of treatment, and the effects of the introduction of sustained access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on fertility. We summarize fertility patterns in rural northeast South Africa over 21 years during dynamic social and epidemiological change. METHODS: We use data for females aged 15-49 from the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system (1993-2013). We use discrete time event history analysis to summarize patterns in the probability of any birth. RESULTS: Overall fertility declined in 2001-2003, increased in 2004-2011, and then declined in 2012-2013. South Africans showed a similar pattern. Mozambicans showed a different pattern, with strong declines prior to 2003 before stalling during 2004-2007, and then continued fertility decline afterwards. There was an inverse gradient between fertility levels and household socioeconomic status. The gradient did not vary by time or nationality. CONCLUSIONS: The fertility transition in rural South Africa shows a pattern of decline until the height of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, with a resulting stall until further decline in the context of ART rollout. Fertility patterns are not homogenous among groups.

Space-Time Smoothing of Complex Survey Data: Small Area Estimation for Child Mortality.

Many people living in low and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration and vital statistics systems. Consequently, a wide variety of other types of data including many household sample surveys are used to estimate health and population indicators. In this paper we combine data from sample surveys and demographic surveillance systems to produce small area estimates of child mortality through time. Small area estimates are necessary to understand geographical heterogeneity in health indicators when full-coverage vital statistics are not available. For this endeavor spatio-temporal smoothing is beneficial to alleviate problems of data sparsity. The use of conventional hierarchical models requires careful thought since the survey weights may need to be considered to alleviate bias due to non-random sampling and non-response. The application that motivated this work is estimation of child mortality rates in five-year time intervals in regions of Tanzania. Data come from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted over the period 1991-2010 and two demographic surveillance system sites. We derive a variance estimator of under five years child mortality that accounts for the complex survey weighting. For our application, the hierarchical models we consider include random effects for area, time and survey and we compare models using a variety of measures including the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO). The method we propose is implemented via the fast and accurate integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA).

Classifying local health departments on the basis of the constellation of services they provide.

OBJECTIVES: We explored service variation among local health departments (LHDs) nationally to allow systematic characterization of LHDs by patterns in the constellation of services they deliver. METHODS: We conducted latent class analysis by using categorical variables derived from LHD service data collected in 2008 for the National Profile of Local Health Departments Survey and before service changes resulting from the national financial crisis. RESULTS: A 3-class solution produced the best fit for this data set of 2294 LHDs. The 3 configurations of LHD services depicted an interrelated set of narrow or limited service provision (limited), a comprehensive (core) set of key services provided, and a third class of core and expanded services (core plus), which often included rare services. The classes demonstrated high geographic variability and were weakly associated with expenditure quintile and urban or rural location. CONCLUSIONS: This empirically derived view of how LHDs organize their array of services is a unique approach to categorizing LHDs, providing an important tool for research and a gauge to monitor how changes in LHD service patterns occur.

Targeted health department expenditures benefit birth outcomes at the county level.

BACKGROUND: Public health leaders lack evidence for making decisions about the optimal allocation of resources across local health department (LHD) services, even as limited funding has forced cuts to public health services while local needs grow. A lack of data has also limited examination of the outcomes of targeted LHD investments in specific service areas. PURPOSE: This study used unique, detailed LHD expenditure data gathered from state health departments to examine the influence of maternal and child health (MCH) service investments by LHDs on health outcomes. METHODS: A multivariate panel time-series design was used in 2013 to estimate ecologic relationships between 2000-2010 LHD expenditures on MCH and county-level rates of low birth weight and infant mortality. The unit of analysis was 102 LHD jurisdictions in Washington and Florida. RESULTS: Results indicate that LHD expenditures on MCH services have a beneficial relationship with county-level low birth weight rates, particularly in counties with high concentrations of poverty. This relationship is stronger for more targeted expenditure categories, with expenditures in each of the three specific examined MCH service areas demonstrating the strongest effects. CONCLUSIONS: Findings indicate that specific LHD investments in MCH have an important effect on related health outcomes for populations in poverty and likely help reduce the costly burden of poor birth outcomes for families and communities. These findings underscore the importance of monitoring the impact of these evolving investments and ensuring that targeted, beneficial investments are not lost but expanded upon across care delivery systems.

Male and female sterility in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Population measures of sterility are traditionally constructed for women, despite fertility and sterility being conditions of the couple. Estimates of male sterility provide insight into population-level sterility, and complement estimates based solely on women. OBJECTIVE: This study seeks to estimate male sterility for the Gwembe Tonga of Zambia using male birth histories collected by the Gwembe Tonga Research Project from 1957 to 1995, while providing context by estimating female sterility for the Gwembe Tonga, as well as female sterility in all of Zambia, from Zambian DHS data (1992, 1997, 2001-02, and 2007). METHODS: Sterility is measured using the Larson-Menken subsequently infertile indicator. Estimates are produced using discrete time event history analysis. RESULTS: The odds of sterility were higher for women than men, though women's odds of sterility were only 1.5 times that of men's in the middle reproductive years. The odds of sterility increased steadily with age for both men and women, and across all datasets. However, women's sterility increased much more sharply with age than men's did, and women's odds of sterility were higher than men's at all reproductive ages.

Reducing vertical HIV transmission in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo: trends in HIV prevalence and service delivery.

Scale-up of vertical HIV transmission prevention has been too slow in sub-Saharan Africa. We describe approaches, challenges, and results obtained in Kinshasa. Staff members of 21 clinics managed by public servants or non-governmental organizations were trained in improved basic antenatal care (ANC) including nevirapine (NVP)-based HIV transmission prevention. Program initiation was supported on-site logistically and technically. Aggregate implementation data were collected and used for program monitoring. Contextual information was obtained through a survey. Among 45,262 women seeking ANC from June 2003 through July 2005, 90% accepted testing; 792 (1.9%) had HIV of whom 599 (76%) returned for their result. Among 414 HIV+ women who delivered in participating maternities, NVP coverage was 79%; 92% of newborns received NVP. Differences were noted by clinic management in program implementation and HIV prevalence (1.2 to 3.0%). Initiating vertical HIV transmission prevention embedded in improved antenatal services in a fragile, fragmented, severely resource-deprived health care system was possible and improved over time. Scope and quality of service coverage should further increase; strategies to decrease loss to follow-up of HIV+ women should be identified to improve program effectiveness. The observed differences in HIV prevalence highlight the importance of selecting representative sentinel surveillance centers.